10NL Blitz ACR Rungood! (2 Viewers)

[boltonguy]

V is short and opens 4BB from LJ. This is larger than standard. On Ignition it usually means spew but not sure on ACR. Dont have enough hands on V to make HUD stats useful.
Hero flats on BN with 99.

Flop boats up hero. V bets 1/2 pot and Hero raises to 3x (1/2 pot) to deny equity to overcards that could boat up on turn & river. V calls.
I think V would call here with overcards - it is unlikely that I have quads or a boat, so I think V continues with a fairly wide range here in case I'm trying to steal.
Edit: Snowie plays mixed here: 82% call, 18% raise 1/4 pot so about 2x or much smaller than Hero's raise.

Turn is a blank, V X and Hero jams. I need to put this in the solver but I think this is probably a X back.
Edit: Snowie does bet turn here but 1/4 pot. I think we're raising and betting small here because our range is condensed while V has all the overpairs which crush us.

Hero call and shows TT

Hero binks the river and outboats V!

 

[boltonguy]

Interestingly the solver raises flop with all combos of 99 here 80%

 

[boltonguy]

The solver almost never jams turn, but instead bets 1/2 pot with all PPs and most of range.
It does jam turn with entire range but less than 1% of the time. It jams 99 0.67% of the time.

 

[setzy]

Preflop - definitely flatting, 4x has pigeon-holed you into not really wanting to 3bet, but hand is too strong to fold.
Flop - Half pot (to me) looks weighted toward value and less toward Ax/broadways, which inclines me to want to call, again because the absolute strength of our hand is quite high (top of our range really, as we 3b TT+ most of the time)
Turn - (as played by raising the flop and getting called) - I think you're forcing villain to play perfectly most of the time, because by jamming they are calling all better and folding all worse than 99. A small bet entices a calling mistake and gets double duty as value vs any worse pairs that peeled. I think you can bet/fold pretty comfortably, take a showdown on river if you get called (which happens a high % after you raise flop).

It's not awful as played but I do agree with the solver about the smaller turn bet. Good luck!

 

[boltonguy]

Appreciate the analysis- thanks!