10NL ACR Blitz: Interesting Turn Raise by V - do you call? (1 Viewer)

boltonguy

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Dont have enough hands on V to make HUD stats useful.

Folds to Hero in SB with AKo. Hero RFI to 3bb. BB calls. Standard.
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Flop is A-high with a FD. Hero bets 1/2 pot and V calls. I think a 1/2 pot bet here is standard from Hero with TPTK on a slightly wet board.
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Turn puts another FD and a SD out there. Hero bets 3/4 pot which I think is standard here.
V raises to about 2.5x - Hero?
I'm thinking he either has value and is raising with the 2 FDs on board: JJ (3 combos), AJ (there are only 6 combos as we see 2 A and 1 J) or a semi-buff like a combo draw (KQ, KT, QT hearts or diamonds for 6 combos). I dont see how he gets here with an offsuit straight draw (e.g. KQo) so I think the value combos far outweigh the semi-bluff combos.
I think with A7, A3, 77, 33 he is raising flop with the FD and with the sets unblocking TP so I take those out of range.
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The obvious bluffs are 89h, T9h, T8h, and broadway hearts. AXd is probably not raising turn as they have good showdown value. I can't see many diamond combo draws that make it to the turn except maybe 45, 56, and MAYBE 46. The lower gutshot + hearts would likely raise the flop. It feels too weak to fold. But there are a lot of dirty rivers. And I would be hard pressed to call a river bet. Which is coming almost 100% of the time.

Value hands are 77, 33, and AJ if we assume V doesn't 3! that pre. That's 12 combos. Bluffs are like maybe 10 if we give V QJh and KJh. This spot is one of the most annoying in NLHE.
 
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Don't see villain having JJ ever here. He should always be 3betting that pre. Even AJ gets 3b BvB at a pretty high frequency. He could have 33 but sets are hard to make and he often raises the flop with that as noted before. J7 would make some sense here... but also a ton of Ax of diamonds that make these kinds of raises. Obviously we block the A. I don't see any other option than calling here.
 
Don't see villain having JJ ever here. He should always be 3betting that pre.
You want to make assumptions about how people are playing JJ pre?

Is there a case for a 3-bet here? I just really hate to flat, because it seems like half the deck is going to make us want to puke on the river.
The fact that he re-raised on the turn, but not the flop, suggests to me that he's either got JJ (which I agree is unlikely) or otherwise some kind of diamond combo draw.
I dunno, I'm no strategist, but that's my reaction to this action.
 
I agree with @Senzrock that JJ is a 3! pre in this configuration and I think AJ is 3! at 50% or so as well so I'm discounting those combos. I dont think he is calling 33 and 77 on flop, instead raising flop with these sets facing the FDFD, so they are out of range as well. All that is left for value is half the AJ combos and a lot of combo draws, mostly hearts but probably diamond broadways as I think those combos are the only ones to float the turn given this is a SRP and this is probably a range bet for the pre-flop aggressor.

I didnt want to re-raise here as there are combos of AJ in range and that would leave me crushed.

Hero called and the river X through. I thought this combo was a strange choice for V to raise but I guess other than AJ and AK he's ahead and isnt happy seeing all the draws out there. I need to put this in the solver to see if he is crazy or onto something.

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Wow. Solver raises AQo with a spade & club 7% of the time here. I guess these combos specifically unblock flush draws.
V had AsQd which is a raise 2% of the time here. So I guess the guy was either a GTO master or spewy. Interesting to see when/why solver is raising specific combos here.
Both Hero's and V's combos are pure X on the river.

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