10NL ACR Blitz: Interesting River Action (1 Viewer)

boltonguy

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Folds to Hero in SB with :as::qs:. Hero RFI 2.5BB (standard size).
BB 3! to 9BB (just over 3.5x). Hero feels like he has good blockers to the top of V's 3! range here and puts in the 4! to 27BB (3x). V calls (not good).
Edit: put this in Snowie; strategy is a 4! here 100% with this hand but to a slightly smaller size (1/2 pot) vs my pot sized raise.

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Flop is K-high with a FDFD. Hero bets 1/3 pot and V calls.
Snowie agrees with the flop bet and sizing.

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Turn is a brick and interestingly enough goes X/X. Maybe V has JJ- here?
Snowie has turn mixed, 70% X, 30% jam.

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River is the :jh:. Hero decides to block bet 1/4 pot to try and set a price to get to SD, chopping with AQ and losing to everything else in V's range.
Snowie has river as a pure X.
I think this block bet is probably cheaper than X/C (and I cant call a bet here with A-high) as the bet would probably be bigger than 1/4 pot for value.
Holy smokes, V folds! I'll never see his hole cards so I'll never know but I'm guessing AdXd that doesnt make a pair (like :ad::td:), AQ, TT, 99. But I dont see most of those hands except the PPs calling a 4! I think the lower PPS bet turn when they improve to a draw.
I was very surprised at the fold.
Thoughts?

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This is what Snowie puts V on OTR. Looks like my read was pretty good - glad he folded as I would have lost. Must have been a non-PP hand that would lose to my Jx.

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I think you got a pretty lucky river given the action. The J is only bad if V has specifically AJ or JJ. I think you were probably getting stationed by 88-TT, or missed diamonds like you said, but you are "ahead" of most of those hands anyway (only tie is with :Ad::Qd:). And how many :Ad::xd: hands is V really 3-betting. AQ, AJ, AT at most? I am really having a hard time giving villain credit for :Kx: anything given the action. That hand surely would have stationed, and likely raised flop or turn with :kd: on board.

I think V 3-bet a middle pair pre, was planning to station once the king hit (which makes some sense heads up, if you are going to play mid pairs aggressively, you can't just hope for overpair flops) and lost his nerve when a second overcard hit the river. In this case this was a smart river bet for you. If villain has missed diamonds, then the bet didn't matter. But I think it's more often the pair than the diamonds, personally.
 
I might add, you could consider check calling here because I would find a river bet from V very polarizing. I would suspect he would check anything with medium showdown value, namely the 88-TT part of his range. A V bet on this river really signals it's JJ or nothing. (Such as missed diamonds.) No two pair hands even make sense for V that the J completes. Nut-no-pair might actually fair pretty well against V betting range here because the value V could have is limited strictly to JJ.

I think in an anonymous game, hero river betting is still the better choice, probably worth trying to fold out 88-TT. But in a game with reads, I could see checking this one against a bluff heavy opponent to induce a bet.
 

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