10NL ACR Blitz: Interesting Flop Decision (1 Viewer)

boltonguy

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Folds to SB who RFI 3BB (standard). Hero 3! to 9BB with AJs (standard). V calls.

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Flop favors my range as 3-bettor. V X. With TPGK I bet 1/3 pot (standard).
V X/raises to 12BB.
Hero?

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Eliminate AA, QQ, AK and discount AQ since no 4! Only hand that beats you is 55 and the discounted AQ. Call him down, bet if he checks.
 
Can't fold. Small possibility of AQ and 55. But those are really it that beats you currently, and AQ specifically is unlikely. Bluffs could be any suited Broadway gutshot with backdoor. But really, villain shouldn't have many raises here. Call. Evaluate turn.
 
Agree with the analysis. Hero calls. Turn completes one of the draws (although Hero partially blocks that hand).
V X. Hero?

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I like either a check or a smaller sized bet here. It honestly feels like villain has a hand like A6-A9 here and is (rightly) playing more cautiously following your call of his (terrible) check-raise on the flop. I think AQ/AT definitely bets this turn give the wet board texture, so fairly sure we are now ahead.
 
I dont think better hands are folding and I'm feeling cautious about having called a X/R.
Hero doesnt want to bet small and face a raise if V just made his straight, so Hero X.

River brings in the BDFD. V X. Hero?

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Sorry, but I think checking this turn is not optimal. We don't want a fold, this should be for value. Very few people are going to check raise twice as a bluff on this board, if V raises us, we can let it go. Otherwise, we get value from many hands that have some showdown value, it have draws. Sure, sometimes we are beat... But if we aren't willing to value own ourselves, we just miss out on way too many spots where we are good and get paid.

Bet turn. We can check river and be happy we got two streets with our top pair when he shows us something like JT or KT.
 
As played I’m betting river smallish 15-20bbs. We’re mostly trying to get looked up by Ax and KT/JT, right? I do fancy a turnbet though
 
Sorry, but I think checking this turn is not optimal. We don't want a fold, this should be for value. Very few people are going to check raise twice as a bluff on this board, if V raises us, we can let it go. Otherwise, we get value from many hands that have some showdown value, it have draws. Sure, sometimes we are beat... But if we aren't willing to value own ourselves, we just miss out on way too many spots where we are good and get paid.

Bet turn. We can check river and be happy we got two streets with our top pair when he shows us something like JT or KT.
What size are you betting turn with? My thinking is by betting big, everything better calls and everything worse folds, and by betting small, it seems pretty face up that we have TPGK. What hands are calling when you bet something like 15-23bb? Granted, I probably would have zero x/r OOP otf in a 3bp on this board texture, so I'd never really arrive here in V position

I also like a ~20bb bet otr as played
 
Hero X river - I have been beating by the rivered BDFD more than once in scenarios like this ...
Hero scoops. The flop X/R makes no sense from V unless he thinks I'm 3! with a very wide range??

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Just put this in GTO+. Solver X turn & river. Solver does bet 3/4 pot. I had excluded AQs from V's calling range (assuming it would be 4!). Just added it back in to see if that changes solver's preferred flop bet size.
 
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What size are you betting turn with? My thinking is by betting big, everything better calls and everything worse folds, and by betting small, it seems pretty face up that we have TPGK. What hands are calling when you bet something like 15-23bb? Granted, I probably would have zero x/r OOP otf in a 3bp on this board texture, so I'd never really arrive here in V position

I also like a ~20bb bet otr as played
I posted earlier... 1/2 pot
 

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