100NL Hand (1 Viewer)

MoscowRadio

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Playing a .50/$1 online cash game and the night is winding down. There are only four players of the original six. UTG and Button are stuck huge. Hero is up to ~$341 and Villain in the BB has been up and down and is sitting on ~$136.

Villain has gone from a TAG player to a hyper LAG resulting in his stack rising and falling than the Dow Jones. He has never busted, but has topped off a couple of times. A few hands ago he lost ~$55 and the player who took it immediately left which catapulted him into LAG city.

Hero had a rough start, but, after a couple of adjustments, Hero has been on the uptick for the last hour or so. When Hero gets to showdown he generally has it. Very few bluffs have been tabled during the session from Hero.

So, we lose two players. UTG and Button fold and Hero has :8d::9d: in the SB. Effective stacks are $136.

What's Hero's play?
 
Limp. Situations where he's heads-up and in position are going to favor Villain, so don't help him by bloating the pot in a spot where it's easy for him to 3-bet and you won't be happy about it. If he raises after you limp, it's a judgment call as to the size of the bet and what you think you can win from him post-flop if you hit something good (as well as your tolerance for risking a lot with something marginal like middle pair).

The key ways to counter LAGs are (a) don't get too invested preflop with stuff you'll have to fold often post-flop, (b) when appropriate, counter their bare aggression with aggression that they can't match, and (c) let them hang themselves when you have them beat. I suppose we'll see which categories this hand falls into.

(And of course, a LAG can always turn up with the goods at any time, but that's a chance you have to take.)
 
I also like the limp / call (small) plan. I think a fold is acceptable.

Raising a hyper LAG with a speculative hand, out of position is a clear mistake. Let's be clear, it sounds like this isn't a normal, skilled LAG, it is a TAG on tilt. Be sure to correct that impression should it be wrong.

Your HUD statistics would be marginally helpful. I say marginal because a) the table is shrinking significantly and b) Villain is morphing over time, so the stats aren't that reflective of his state of mind at the moment. What I want to focus on is post flop values, not so much preflop.

DrStrange
 
You are very correct, @DrStrange. This Villain is by no means a skilled LAG, but a TAG on tilt. Unfortunately, no HUD stats are available. I just started back on Bovada and am working on finding a HUD.

I should have mentioned that Hero has been able to push Villain around quite a bit, especially in blind vs. blind situations.

Knowing that the table is likely falling apart, with two players gone and two more sitting on ~20BBs, Hero is looking for a little action. Here’s where everything that’s been said so far goes right out the window.

Hero raises to $3 and Villain 3-bets to $10.

Hero?
 
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You are very correct, @DrStrangeI should have mentioned that Hero has been able to push Villain around quite a bit, especially in blind vs. blind situations.

Yeah, I was about to write something on that regard when you posted.

I like the idea of limp/call as Jim and the Doc wrote. My comment (too late) is that the move depended on how you played your other hands on the same situation vs Villain. If you also limped monsters, it's fine to limp/call. If you only limped hands like suited connectors, small broadway and small pairs, then it might be too easy to play against your limping range. Anyways...

As played, I call. Not folding and but not sure there's value in 4-betting. So yeah, I call.
 
Limp. Situations where he's heads-up and in position are going to favor Villain, so don't help him by bloating the pot in a spot where it's easy for him to 3-bet and you won't be happy about it.
^That^
You have a great hand to speculate. If you flop big its a great hand against these players. If nothing, its an easy fold
 
Hero notes that he has been able to push villain around in these situations. But not this hand. This should be alarming to Hero, it certainly is to me.

If hero calls, it creates an SPR of 7. Not quite in the heart of "top pair land" but not where close to the 15+ SPR you would want with speculative hands like 98s. Toss in bad position and the unexpected spine from villain. I think this is a fold.

Sure hero could slam the flop, making two pair or better (less than 2%) or maybe he flops a monster draw that has better than 50% equity.

More likely hero flops a simple draw and is depending on fold equity to make up the difference.

As likely, hero flops a pair and has to count on villain having enough air to make up for hands when villain wasn't joking about an overpair.

Most likely? hero flops nothing and folds to a c-bet. Let's hope hero doesn't try to bluff the monkey tilting TAG/LAG and end up losing his stack to ace high.

The flop isn't cheap anymore. I vote fold.

DrStrange

PS If Hero is going to play at these stakes he absolutely MUST get a good HUD and learn to use it. Hero is at a massive disadvantage vs other HUD using players. This really isn't optional, the edge differential is destructive once the HUD users get enough data to make accurate post flop decisions.
 
My conclusions so far:
  • Should have kept the pot small if I wanted to stay in.
  • GET A HUD! (Just downloaded);)
  • Again, keep the pot small, dummy.
So Villain raises to $10. Hero is not able to give a whole lot of credibility to this raise due to the steam coming out of Villain's ears. Hero's thoughts are: I don't like being OOP here, but we could take a flop with a hand like this and be able to fold pretty easily if nothing comes of it, so Hero calls. Pot is $20 and effective stacks are $126.

The flop is :7c::tc::7h:

Action on Hero.
 
My conclusions so far:
  • Should have kept the pot small if I wanted to stay in.
  • GET A HUD! (Just downloaded);)
  • Again, keep the pot small, dummy.
So Villain raises to $10. Hero is not able to give a whole lot of credibility to this raise due to the steam coming out of Villain's ears. Hero's thoughts are: I don't like being OOP here, but we could take a flop with a hand like this and be able to fold pretty easily if nothing comes of it, so Hero calls. Pot is $20 and effective stacks are $126.

The flop is :7c::tc::7h:

Action on Hero.

Pretty typical flop for suited connectors—you have a little something, but you need to improve to have any confidence, and even if you improve, it won't always be great.

Check with the intention of folding to any decent-sized bet. If he bets small (e.g., $10 or less), you could call, but it's marginal and a fold wouldn't be terrible. Against a tilt-monkey, an 8 or 9 may turn out to be a legitimate out, but it will be a vulnerable hand no matter what you hit, and you'll likely have to pay a lot to take it to showdown. And don't forget that this player 3-bet. He may be raising light, but there are still overpairs and big tens in his range too. Even a spewing player can turn up with a hand.

Whatever you do, don't get roped into chasing for large bets. This is very much a small-pot hand.
 
Post four has villain's 3-bet at $9. Post #8 has it at $10. A $2 difference in the pot can grow quickly. The SPR is now 6.3.

I suggest giving more time between stages. Lots of people are on different time zones or in the middle of a work / school day and don't check in so often.

Ick! This is a somewhat gross spot. It isn't an obvious fold but not so great either. Yes Hero has a draw. But the board is paired AND there is a flush prospect out there. Hero can never make the nuts, though running nines or eights would be close enough for me.

On a terrible day, hero is drawing dead. Maybe hero is facing a flush draw (unlikely, but not crazy). Maybe Hero is up against jacks and is drawing only to the bottom end of the straight. Maybe it is just an overpair, giving Hero a full eight outs. Could be hero is facing ace high and possibly a chance to steal. Let's give hero credit for seven outs, but mindful of risk of being in worse shape than anticipated.

I think a passive line is best. Check to villain and see what he does. Ideally hero gets a cheap card. Not much chance for a free card in my opinion. If villain bets much over half pot, I think a fold is in order. Lets say villain bets $13 - Hero needs to make 7x $13 or $91 to pay for one card odds (ignoring RIO risks). The $20 pot plus $126 effective means the best case is plus $146. That isn't much of a margin of error.

Does that seem weak / tight? It does to me too. Yet, the advantages villain gained from the preflop action and position don't leave Hero good choices. Hero should be mindful that most of his choices the rest of the hand are depending on implied odds and/or bluff equity to make the case for not folding. I'd give more weight to implied odds and assume hero has limited to no fold equity.

DrStrange
 
Post-flop, I'm thinking more about the implied odds of stacking Villain off with a straight, but I'm also not willing to invest a ton into this hand. My line of thought is basically, "I can't fold to a bet around 1/2 pot on this flop, but I'm not putting in anything else for another barrel."

So, to recap, we are post-flop with :8d::9d: on a :7c::tc::7h: board with $20 in the pot and effective stacks are $126.

Hero checks and Villain C-bets for $12 bring the pot to $32.

Hero? Is there a case for raising here?
 
Lets say villain bets $13 - Hero needs to make 7x $13 or $91 to pay for one card odds (ignoring RIO risks). The $20 pot plus $126 effective means the best case is plus $146. That isn't much of a margin of error.

DrStrange

Could you elaborate on this a little, Doc? I understand where the figures come from (number of outs)(bet) = $91, but I'm not 100% on how to utilize that information and I would really love to know.

Thanks as always for your contribution to this thread. I've missed hearing your input on hand strategy. It's indeed good to be back.
 
I estimated (guessed) that Hero has effectively seven outs. That means he has ~15% to hit a "good" card on the flop. Inverting that is a bit less than 7, but I rounded up to seven which starts to account for the re-draws villain has on the river if Hero makes a straight and villain calls all-in on the turn. That value is an educated guess - not quite making up shit, but filled with assumptions. Over all, I feel the estimate over values Hero's situation. It was my best guess at the time . . . by tonight I think I under estimated the redraws if we assume villain pays off a big turn bet. (Either he has a pair giving him four outs to make a full house or he has a nine out flush draw.) I also think reverse implied odds play a small factor here - mostly when Hero makes a straight and villain hits a flush..

How does a player use information like this? Hero's risk needs to get him $91 just to break even. The direct pot odds are worth $20 + 2x the flop bet, or $46 in the case of the $13 c-bet. That leaves Hero $45 worth of implied odds to overcome just to break even for the risk taken from calling the flop bet. Hero has to get villain to pay off Hero's straight, which he might not do.
There is less science here than wisdom and experience. Extracting value is an art form - something Hero can judge better than us. When Hero is contemplating a call on the flop c-bet he is making a judgment about what extra chips he can get from villain. If villain has ace-high, it might prove difficult to get any more money. Let's hope the question of tilting proves to be beneficial - it might.

The other side of the risk - best case for Hero is $146 - breakeven of $91. The very most hero can win from a lucky turn card and poor play by villain is $55. (remember hero has to recover his investment for the six other times his flop bet is lost on other hands.) That doesn't seem like a big prize - Hero is going to lose an all-in pot due to redraws or drawing dead more often than one might imagine. I'd guess the redraw plus drawing dead risk to be something between 10% and 20% or -$30 to -$60 vs a best case reward of +$55.

You don't have enough time to do this math at the table even if you are so inclined. That is why these types of hands are good to post. It gives you time to ponder the options and develop "rules of thumb". For me, I rarely take a straight draw to a paired and flush drawing board. I don't need to do that math again, I just know there are lots of bad things that happen by the river and it is best not to take a hand further under those circumstances.

10X this if you are playing speed poker on-line. If there is value, it is thin. Why take that chance?

If you want to gambol, and the price is cheap enough, go for it. I think my cut off might be $10 and only because the villain is playing poorly. Most likely case? Hero invests chips on a flop call and ends up folding to a turn bet. Next most likely case? Hero hits lucky but villain folds his ace high leaving Hero way short of breakeven for the risk.

DrStrange
 
Hero opts to just call the $12, bringing the pit to $44 and effective stacks to $114.

The turn is the :6h: giving Hero the nut straight. This puts two flush draws on the board, as well as more opportunities for Villain to have a full house. This is where Hero has the made hand, but would probably preferred not to have put themselves in this situation in the first place. However, against this Villain, it’s not the worst situation with him being on full-blown tilt.

What can we range Villain on given the action thus far? What is Hero’s move?
 
Do you feel lucky? Hero has to get a pot sized bet off of villain to make up for the risk taken on the flop.

I vote check and hope tilting villain bets his whole range. He sees the same two flush draws that Hero does. He will surely bet to protect an overpair or trips. But perhaps he will bet with AQo too.

Hero's plan is check/jam. No hard decisions on the river.

DrStrange
 
I'm not risking that villain checks back. I see it more likely that he will move in over the top if I put out a 'blocker' bet of $30 or so, which he may even see as a challenge. Not checking.
 
Whether I check the straight depends on just how extreme this guy's LAG-tilt has been. If he's multi-barreling every pot he plays, check the turn and check the river too. Let him hang himself. With stacks at this size, he'll end up shoving it all with a wide variety of hands, up to and including total air.

The trouble with betting out is that you will seldom get action unless he actually has something. I'm honestly a little torn, though. He did 3-bet preflop, but that may or may not mean much. Same with the c-bet.

Based on his previous recent play, what do you expect him to do on the turn if if you check/bet?
 
I think the limp, reassess. But you have to make sure to balance the play. Blah Its like Doing Polk " well you could call, raise, or fold here..." The limp was just the seemingly most expoitable for the particular villain
 
Personally, I like having a pretty wide limping range in the sb, unless the bb is just weak when facing raises. I think 98s is a pretty straight forward limp and plan to call spot.

On the flop as played I think you check call. If villian is tilty the nutty part of his range is small compared to air. I'd assume the 8 outs are usually clean and the pairs will be good a hunk of the time as well. Check call usually. Consider a check raise if you think you have fold equity here, but that is doubtful with tilty players. (and worse you would have to fold to a 3 bet shove here.) Check fold seems weak except against a huge overbet.

The turn is interesting. How often is villian checking behind if you bet? It's a good spot for a check raise if you think villian is betting really wide. Otherwise I would just lead and hope villian us paying off wide. (Tilty players do this.)
 

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