I estimated (guessed) that Hero has effectively seven outs. That means he has ~15% to hit a "good" card on the flop. Inverting that is a bit less than 7, but I rounded up to seven which starts to account for the re-draws villain has on the river if Hero makes a straight and villain calls all-in on the turn. That value is an educated guess - not quite making up shit, but filled with assumptions. Over all, I feel the estimate over values Hero's situation. It was my best guess at the time . . . by tonight I think I under estimated the redraws if we assume villain pays off a big turn bet. (Either he has a pair giving him four outs to make a full house or he has a nine out flush draw.) I also think reverse implied odds play a small factor here - mostly when Hero makes a straight and villain hits a flush..
How does a player use information like this? Hero's risk needs to get him $91 just to break even. The direct pot odds are worth $20 + 2x the flop bet, or $46 in the case of the $13 c-bet. That leaves Hero $45 worth of implied odds to overcome just to break even for the risk taken from calling the flop bet. Hero has to get villain to pay off Hero's straight, which he might not do.
There is less science here than wisdom and experience. Extracting value is an art form - something Hero can judge better than us. When Hero is contemplating a call on the flop c-bet he is making a judgment about what extra chips he can get from villain. If villain has ace-high, it might prove difficult to get any more money. Let's hope the question of tilting proves to be beneficial - it might.
The other side of the risk - best case for Hero is $146 - breakeven of $91. The very most hero can win from a lucky turn card and poor play by villain is $55. (remember hero has to recover his investment for the six other times his flop bet is lost on other hands.) That doesn't seem like a big prize - Hero is going to lose an all-in pot due to redraws or drawing dead more often than one might imagine. I'd guess the redraw plus drawing dead risk to be something between 10% and 20% or -$30 to -$60 vs a best case reward of +$55.
You don't have enough time to do this math at the table even if you are so inclined. That is why these types of hands are good to post. It gives you time to ponder the options and develop "rules of thumb". For me, I rarely take a straight draw to a paired and flush drawing board. I don't need to do that math again, I just know there are lots of bad things that happen by the river and it is best not to take a hand further under those circumstances.
10X this if you are playing speed poker on-line. If there is value, it is thin. Why take that chance?
If you want to gambol, and the price is cheap enough, go for it. I think my cut off might be $10 and only because the villain is playing poorly. Most likely case? Hero invests chips on a flop call and ends up folding to a turn bet. Next most likely case? Hero hits lucky but villain folds his ace high leaving Hero way short of breakeven for the risk.
DrStrange