$1/2NL: Bottom set on wet board facing a backraise with deep stacks (1 Viewer)

I watched a video once where the guy said flat-raising means the nuts :eek:
 
trever said:
Against this range: QQ, JJ, KcTc, Tc9c, Q3, J3, AcKc, Ac10c, you have 49% equity
Click to expand...

add QJ and i think this is the range, but you haven't weighted any of those hands. he doesn't act as he has with 100% of those hands 100% of the time, so you have to remove some combos.

and when we get into weighting the holdings and when we start down the road of continuous probability, things get tough very fast.

it was noted above in a couple of places that BB check-raised the flop, but he did not. he backraised after flatting and seeing two raises behind his flat. this is a huge, huge difference imo. and on top of that, he sized it such that he never, ever thinks anyone is folding.

so let's consider how often BB would act in the way he did here at every point with various holdings:

- checked through the BB
- flatted the stone nuts on a very wet board with four players left to act after the one spewtard on the table has led out
- min-backraised after seeing a big stack who has been playing fairly nitty make a standard-sized raise and a spewtard ship his short stack

consider that he has to take all of the actions above. so consider, for instance, QQ. how often does he check the BB? 30%ish prob. how often does he then flat with that action, that board, and the players behind? i would say 20%ish at most. then how often does he min-backraise after my raise and spewy's ship? i would say 10%ish. 10% of 20% of 30% is pretty fucking rare. these are all spitball numbers obviously, but i lay it out just to make the point concerning continuous probability.

anyway, back to weighting the hands in his range, i would not be shocked to see him take the above line with QQ, JJ, or QJ. i would be quite surprised to see him show up with Q3 or J3. i would be floored to see him show up with a drawing hand, even the huge ones. he's tight passive, but he's a smart player and if he wants to take his big draw against spewy's $70 and the dead money in the middle without dealing with my hand, he's going to shut out all but the top of my range. he knows he will not do this with a min-raise. if he had made it $270, i would have snap-shipped and this thread would not have been made regardless of his holding or the result.

so...weighting those hands in his range according to my thoughts above, i would say to include about a third of the combos of QQ, JJ and QJ, about 20% of the combos of Q3 and J3 and 5% of the combos of the drawing hands. without stoving it, i would say my hand has probably 30% against that weighted range.

at the table, my thought process at this point was the following:

- he's got a made hand here and wants to see a "safe" turn, but also wants to make me pay at least a little to make me see even one more card with the plan to jam any "safe" card to shut me out before the river
- because of my relatively nitty play to this point in the night, he doesn't think i'm capable of 5-betting even a big draw and that i will likely just flat to catch the turn
- he could have checked through with QQ, JJ, QJ, Q3 and J3, but the big little hands would require the case 3 and are therefore quite unlikely
- by default most players consider two pair more vulnerable than a set and even though on a board like this such a distinction is less important, i think his default thinking would have led him to raise spewy's $7 more often with QJ than with QQ or JJ

but...armed with my genius in-game analysis...what to do...
 
'Murcan of course.


I mean if Phil Ivey can stack off in the Main Event why can't you in a cash game? Are you trying to say you're better than Phil freaking Ivey???
 
Last edited:
jbutler said:
i would say my hand has probably 30% against that weighted range
Click to expand...

You're getting a decent price straight up, and there's a ton of scare cards you could choose to bluff. Flat and re-evaluate turn.
 
The problem is a lot of those scare cards help villain if he has a combo draw. I think we shouldn't let this board get any wetter, lest we drown.
 
Hero can tell me enough things about the villain and Hero's table image to make this a fold. We aren't there yet, but it could happen.

One thought line left unaddressed - what does villain expect when he calls the shove from SB and the action gets to Hero? Villain's line then looks like a simple draw who slowly gets seduced into putting more and more chips at risk. Villain might expect some chance that Hero would raise again hoping to isolate and capture the dead money. So much of our thinking depends on how good villain is and how deeply villain considers his actions - and we don't know much about these things.

Just saying Hero has a considerably deeper wealth of knowledge here -=- DrStrange
 
Ok, a six-way limped pot, even out of position I think the bb has queens or jacks waaaaay less often than you guys are giving him credit for. Sure, it's possible, but it's far more likely for him to have QJ (maybe even QJss and he thinks he may be free rolling a backdoor draw against you) or a big combo draw. From his perspective, if he has QJ, your hand looks like AQ, KQ, QJ, a combo draw, or 33. There is only one hand here he isn't crushing. Why wouldn't he raise to $140 here, especially against a short stack who could have any two?
 
DrStrange said:
Hero can tell me enough things about the villain and Hero's table image to make this a fold. We aren't there yet, but it could happen.

One thought line left unaddressed - what does villain expect when he calls the shove from SB and the action gets to Hero? Villain's line then looks like a simple draw who slowly gets seduced into putting more and more chips at risk. Villain might expect some chance that Hero would raise again hoping to isolate and capture the dead money. So much of our thinking depends on how good villain is and how deeply villain considers his actions - and we don't know much about these things.

Just saying Hero has a considerably deeper wealth of knowledge here -=- DrStrange
Click to expand...

i wish i had more to give, but unfortunately i don't. i was also in a considerably better position to evaluate BB's play than he was to evaluate mine because we had played together at least half a dozen 6ish-hour sessions a few years ago. i remember his play then and his play during the session at issue did not indicate that much had changed which allowed me to give the above read (i.e., tight passive, but solid and thinking). he, on the other hand, does not remember me at all.

i wouldn't say BB is an extremely deep thinker. he's accustomed to playing deep because the game we used to play in (and this one now) reward tight (and even sometimes passive) play so he accumulated a stack with some regularity, but he's not accustomed to facing another player he would think of as tight because there are so few in this player pool.

of course i didn't preload a raise or otherwise handle my chips in a way to give any indication of what i was planning to do if BB flatted spewy's jam. i don't think BB would have expected me to get to feisty only on the basis that i explained above - that i had not been playing aggro on the flop by any means, probably raising a flop bet maybe twice prior to this hand.

ChaosRock said:
^^^^ Just to balance the times we jam a bit behind in equity vs. Villain's range with those we jam with absolute air... :)
Click to expand...

i'm jamming with air here exactly never and i am not concerned with balancing versus this opponent.

mipevi said:
You're getting a decent price straight up, and there's a ton of scare cards you could choose to bluff. Flat and re-evaluate turn.
Click to expand...

i would agree that i'm getting a good price except i have no plan for any card that might come apart from the case 3 (assuming BB doesn't hold the case 3).

Chippy McChiperson said:
Ok, a six-way limped pot, even out of position I think the bb has queens or jacks waaaaay less often than you guys are giving him credit for. Sure, it's possible, but it's far more likely for him to have QJ (maybe even QJss and he thinks he may be free rolling a backdoor draw against you) or a big combo draw. From his perspective, if he has QJ, your hand looks like AQ, KQ, QJ, a combo draw, or 33. There is only one hand here he isn't crushing. Why wouldn't he raise to $140 here, especially against a short stack who could have any two?
Click to expand...

chippy, are you honestly telling me that you're floored when an OMC at maryland live checks QQ or JJ through in the BB after a bunch of limps? i see it with serious regularity at $1/2 and $2/5. i think QJ is more likely than QQ or JJ, but not by a ton. and i still say he has a combo draw very, very rarely.
 
jbutler said:
This is basically never an iso-raise here imo because literally no one at this table would ever, ever fold to that sizing.
Click to expand...
SB makes a less than half pot bet on the flop and you basically raise the pot... what is the minimum hand you would make this move with? I'm not following how $28 on top would never fold to an additional $105 at this table.

I would have said he could have literally any Q, maybe even AJ/KJ and want to get rid you or figure out where you're at if he is seeing SB as shortstacked open-ended or flushing.

If he knows you aren't folding? ATcc, QJ or JJ
 
Ronoh said:
SB makes a less than half pot bet on the flop and you basically raise the pot... what is the minimum hand you would make this move with? I'm not following how $28 on top would never fold to an additional $105 at this table.
Click to expand...

okay, i'll concede that perhaps saying never ever ever as i did above overstates it a bit, but in this game, pretty much everyone is calling getting nearly 2:1.

Ronoh said:
I would have said he could have literally any Q, maybe even AJ/KJ and want to get rid you or figure out where you're at if he is seeing SB as shortstacked open-ended or flushing.

If he knows you aren't folding? ATcc, QJ or JJ
Click to expand...

he literally never has just a J here. no matter the sizing. i agree with the final range (but would add QQ), but i think the drawing hands in there are a tiny portion of it based on his tendencies.

ChaosRock said:
It was a joke...
Click to expand...

no jokes in this serious thread!
 
jbutler said:
i wish i had more to give, but unfortunately i don't. i was also in a considerably better position to evaluate BB's play than he was to evaluate mine because we had played together at least half a dozen 6ish-hour sessions a few years ago. i remember his play then and his play during the session at issue did not indicate that much had changed which allowed me to give the above read (i.e., tight passive, but solid and thinking). he, on the other hand, does not remember me at all.

i wouldn't say BB is an extremely deep thinker. he's accustomed to playing deep because the game we used to play in (and this one now) reward tight (and even sometimes passive) play so he accumulated a stack with some regularity, but he's not accustomed to facing another player he would think of as tight because there are so few in this player pool.

of course i didn't preload a raise or otherwise handle my chips in a way to give any indication of what i was planning to do if BB flatted spewy's jam. i don't think BB would have expected me to get to feisty only on the basis that i explained above - that i had not been playing aggro on the flop by any means, probably raising a flop bet maybe twice prior to this hand.



i'm jamming with air here exactly never and i am not concerned with balancing versus this opponent.



i would agree that i'm getting a good price except i have no plan for any card that might come apart from the case 3 (assuming BB doesn't hold the case 3).



chippy, are you honestly telling me that you're floored when an OMC at maryland live checks QQ or JJ through in the BB after a bunch of limps? i see it with serious regularity at $1/2 and $2/5. i think QJ is more likely than QQ or JJ, but not by a ton. and i still say he has a combo draw very, very rarely.
Click to expand...

Maryland Live players are awful. You said he was half decent.
 
i haven't thought this much about a hand in a while and i'm letting too much revisionist thinking cloud my memory of what reads i had on the guy at the time i made the decision in the hand, so i'll decline from saying anything further about what i thought then about his tendencies.

similarly to a couple of my other recent strat posts, this originated from a decision that i made and which benefited me at the time, but which after the fact i think was not correct. there are plenty of times when we run into the absolute tops of villains' ranges and get stacked but after the fact thinking further and realize we were right to have taken the line we did in view of villain's actual total range.

here, the inverse (maybe converse depending on your perspective?) occurred. results and a bit of discussion in spoiler tag in case anyone wants to continue without results.

i tanked for literally 3 or 4 minutes which is an eternity for me and ultimately folded. BB insta-tabled JJ and held versus spewy's 4c2c. turn 6s, river 4d. despite my rationalizations above, i think i probably should have gone with it after stoving BB's weighted range.

i was a thousand percent not going to tell anyone that i folded a set, but unfortunately i had let me neighbor sweat my hand preflop and he naturally could not keep his mouth shut. not good to get a reputation for folding sets in that game, but what can you do.
 
jbutler said:
add QJ and i think this is the range, but you haven't weighted any of those hands. he doesn't act as he has with 100% of those hands 100% of the time, so you have to remove some combos.

and when we get into weighting the holdings and when we start down the road of continuous probability, things get tough very fast.

it was noted above in a couple of places that BB check-raised the flop, but he did not. he backraised after flatting and seeing two raises behind his flat. this is a huge, huge difference imo. and on top of that, he sized it such that he never, ever thinks anyone is folding.

so let's consider how often BB would act in the way he did here at every point with various holdings:

- checked through the BB
- flatted the stone nuts on a very wet board with four players left to act after the one spewtard on the table has led out
- min-backraised after seeing a big stack who has been playing fairly nitty make a standard-sized raise and a spewtard ship his short stack

consider that he has to take all of the actions above. so consider, for instance, QQ. how often does he check the BB? 30%ish prob. how often does he then flat with that action, that board, and the players behind? i would say 20%ish at most. then how often does he min-backraise after my raise and spewy's ship? i would say 10%ish. 10% of 20% of 30% is pretty fucking rare. these are all spitball numbers obviously, but i lay it out just to make the point concerning continuous probability.

anyway, back to weighting the hands in his range, i would not be shocked to see him take the above line with QQ, JJ, or QJ. i would be quite surprised to see him show up with Q3 or J3. i would be floored to see him show up with a drawing hand, even the huge ones. he's tight passive, but he's a smart player and if he wants to take his big draw against spewy's $70 and the dead money in the middle without dealing with my hand, he's going to shut out all but the top of my range. he knows he will not do this with a min-raise. if he had made it $270, i would have snap-shipped and this thread would not have been made regardless of his holding or the result.

so...weighting those hands in his range according to my thoughts above, i would say to include about a third of the combos of QQ, JJ and QJ, about 20% of the combos of Q3 and J3 and 5% of the combos of the drawing hands. without stoving it, i would say my hand has probably 30% against that weighted range.

at the table, my thought process at this point was the following:

- he's got a made hand here and wants to see a "safe" turn, but also wants to make me pay at least a little to make me see even one more card with the plan to jam any "safe" card to shut me out before the river
- because of my relatively nitty play to this point in the night, he doesn't think i'm capable of 5-betting even a big draw and that i will likely just flat to catch the turn
- he could have checked through with QQ, JJ, QJ, Q3 and J3, but the big little hands would require the case 3 and are therefore quite unlikely
- by default most players consider two pair more vulnerable than a set and even though on a board like this such a distinction is less important, i think his default thinking would have led him to raise spewy's $7 more often with QJ than with QQ or JJ

but...armed with my genius in-game analysis...what to do...
Click to expand...

If this was my thought process, I'm snap folding. I'm also probably quitting poker because this revelation would lead me to understand that I will never play this game well.

If you limp pre and I limp pre and we go set over set on the flop, you're getting all my chips, without exception or reservation. I think in the long run we lose more value not getting max value vs QJ then we do versus villain waking up with JJ or QQ in this spot.
 
jbutler said:
chippy, are you honestly telling me that you're floored when an OMC at maryland live checks QQ or JJ through in the BB after a bunch of limps? i see it with serious regularity at $1/2 and $2/5. i think QJ is more likely than QQ or JJ, but not by a ton. and i still say he has a combo draw very, very rarely.
Click to expand...

I've seen this very very very rarely - but now I'm realizing that against a player as loose as me (the polar opposite of how you describe your play here), they're never checking or even really flatting here if I raise pre.
 
bergs said:
I think in the long run we lose more value not getting max value vs QJ then we do versus villain waking up with JJ or QQ in this spot.
Click to expand...

ultimately i agree with this.
 
image.jpg
 
Good God, get some wisdom teeth removed and spend a few days hopped up on Vicodin and this whole place goes to hell in a handbasket...

I expect villain to have exactly QJ something like 70% of the time here. Exactly KcTc 20% of the time, and QQ or JJ 10% of the time. Anything else: never. He's not doing this with Q3 and certainly not with J3. or "only" a gutshot/NFD.

JAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAM.
 
so much analysis for an easy spot.

did you play 33 to fold after flopping a set? NO.

get the money in. if he has QQ or JJ, good luck to him.. move on.

if he has a draw, you've made him pay to chase by reshoving.
 
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