$1/2NL: Bottom set on wet board facing a backraise with deep stacks (1 Viewer)

jbutler

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playing a home game with a semi-new group (half completely new; half from other local games). about 3 hours into the session, the following hand comes up.

i'm in MP with 3d3h and overlimp after UTG and UTG+1 come into the pot. BTN limps as well and the blinds check it through.

relevant villains:

SB profile: spewtard with very nearly any two at any time. he might have a piece of the flop when he goes hard, but bottom pair and a backdoor flush draw is a big piece in his mind. has not been working for him tonight and he's into the game for $700, sitting currently with about $70.

BB profile: very solid, fairly tight player. would not classify him as a TAG as he can often take passive lines with hands a true TAG would push harder. he has been the beneficiary of most of SB's donking. has approximately $800.

flop ($18): QcJc3s

SB bets $7. BB calls, folds to me and i make it $35. BTN folds and SB ships his $70. BB then tanks for a minute and asks me how much i have. i have $600ish and he has me covered. he raises to $140 straight.

my play?
 

BGinGA

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I'm not sure BB is calling a shove with his Q.... but he might call a re-raise to 250. I want more than just his $140, and a smallish re-raise might just be the way to get a bunch (especially if he hits two pair or another Q on the turn). I'd rate it as raise > call >> shove. Never folding.
 

DrStrange

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Hero has a mess on his hands and needs to think this through. The villain read is potentially alarming, potentially encouraging. Questions: How good is villain? Does he play his style as a big winner? Does villain bet his draws? Could this villain put his stack on the line to isolate SB? Could he semibluff his whole stack as a tight passive??? Could this villain stack off with KK/AA here?

On one hand we have a villain bordering on tight-passive who has check raised a 4-bet. Villain clearly knows big dollars are at stake and is offering to play for stacks. The raise puts the pot this way if hero calls - $140 in a side pot, $228 main, hero has $460 left behind. Hero is pot committed if he doesn't fold now. If Hero is behind, he is crushed even missing the suited 3 for the runner runner flush. If Hero is facing a big combo draw he is solidly ahead but not crushing. Hero does crush two pair.

On the other hand, we have a villain in potentially unfamiliar waters. He is the BB in a limped pot and maybe holds something like Q3 - a hand he never ever plays. This is a complex situation with the fat plum SB offering up his stack to whoever has the balls to try and take it. I do not know if villain understands play with such a big stack in a complicated hand - maybe not.

Ranging villain - I discount overpairs. Primary range is sets, two pair, combo draw, secondary range is nut flush draw, outliers would be over pair, top pair, lesser draws. If I had to guess one hand villain might hold it is QJ for top two pair.

So, hero can't fold. Villain's range is well behind Hero's holdings. Sometimes hero will be facing set over set and have a sick bad beat story one way or the other.

The wetness of the board puts hero in a RIO situation - a scary turn might make villain's hand or scare him off. I think this is a must raise situation.

We don't know Hero's table image {though we might guess}. My bias is to shove it in, but Hero could easily tell me a story that makes this a two step bet, say $250 more now and $210 on the turn.

DrStrange
 

onerand

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Cooler if BB has JJ, which I don't rule out, but if he has it he has it. I think clicking back to $280 is cute. But I also like flatting in position, or shoving if BB won't fold any two pair.
 

grandgnu

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So, hero can't fold. Villain's range is well behind Hero's holdings. Sometimes hero will be facing set over set and have a sick bad beat story one way or the other.

The wetness of the board puts hero in a RIO situation - a scary turn might make villain's hand or scare him off. I think this is a must raise situation.


Gotta agree with the good doc here. I expect to be ahead of villain the majority of the time, but turn cards can kill action (or our hand). I want to get pot committed now. That can be accomplished with a reraise here (and planning to get it in on the turn regardless) or a straight shove now. Villian is likely trying to isolate villain with some dead money in the pot, we should be ahead.
 

bergs

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Raise to $400. Looks like you're trying to re-isolate. If he slow played a set here, congratulations, this is the first time in human history this play has worked. :)

You're probably having to fade clubs and/or a OESD. Flatting here is horrible as it let's him get there and rewards his aggression. Min raising here is terrible because it gives him great odds to call and re-evaluate turn.

$400 commits your stack and there is a chance that a competent player sees you for a set, but I think less so then if you shove.

EDIT: just read the good doctor's point around the 2 step bet. I likey.
 

jbutler

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Consider the line taken by a tight passive villain on this wet flop, though: flat the shortstacked spewtard's small bet, see a raise by another deep stack and a shove by the spewtard. Then he makes a near min-raise on top after having flatted the first bet. Consider also that I've raised maybe two flops in the 3 hours prior to this hand.

This is basically never an iso-raise here imo because literally no one at this table would ever, ever fold to that sizing.

Even if you disagree with the above analysis re: whether he's iso'ing, if we assume he's not, what does he hold here?
 

Shaggy

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If we eliminate the draws that he could be isolating with... He is doing this with QQ, JJ, and QJ. The purpose of the raise is still isolation though, pricing out the potential draws. I don't see QQ or JJ here nearly ever due to pre-flop action and TAG read. I like the 2 step bet here as well.
 

joker80

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How often would the villain not raise pre flop with QQ or JJ? Those are cards that could easily be picked off by AX or KX . I don't think he has an overset and my money would be on 2 pair or a draw. Could also have AA or KK quite easily as well as those are cards that a some people would not raise pre flop in order to trap people that flop the "top pair" (not my ideal play mind you)
 

Bordizzle

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maybe he slow-played A-A or K-K? i don't see a three-bet of that size with A-Q here... and i don't see why the BB would check with Q-Q or J-J pre-flop when he's closing off the action

maybe Q-J?
 

jbutler

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If we eliminate the draws that he could be isolating with... He is doing this with QQ, JJ, and QJ. The purpose of the raise is still isolation though, pricing out the potential draws.

A solid player doesn't believe he's pricing anyone out of any plausible draw with that sizing.
 

BGinGA

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Consider the line taken by a tight passive villain on this wet flop, though: flat the shortstacked spewtard's small bet, see a raise by another deep stack and a shove by the spewtard. Then he makes a near min-raise on top after having flatted the first bet. Consider also that I've raised maybe two flops in the 3 hours prior to this hand.

This is basically never an iso-raise here imo because literally no one at this table would ever, ever fold to that sizing.

Even if you disagree with the above analysis re: whether he's iso'ing, if we assume he's not, what does he hold here?


I'm figuring BB villain for QJ, Q3, J3, Ac3c, KcTc, or Tc9c (and is raising for value). Possibly KcQx or QxTc, but nothing else really makes any sense at all, given the pre-flop action (almost zero chance of somebody holding AA, KK, QQ, or JJ). SB villain could have a single Q, J, 3, two clubs, or two straight cards (KT, K9, T9, T8, 98).
 

jbutler

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The conversation I had after the game with another player also centered on whether BB ever has QQ or JJ when he checks pre. I think he checks those hands through in the BB something like 30% of the time. In addition to his passive nature, he knows that any preflop raise under $20 will get called by most limpets and would want to see a flop with no overcards before putting much in the pot. While this guy is a young guy, he plays a fair amount like a standard old man coffee.

My problem is his line just makes so little sense with any holding. If he has QJ+ why isn't he iso-info. If he has KTcc why isn't he flatting to see the turn? Perhaps he's trying to min-raise with a draw to freeze me so he doesn't have to face a larger raise by me if he flats the spewtard's jam? I would not expect him to be thinking on that level but it's really the only rationale that makes any sense I think.
 
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DrStrange

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I see folks haven't played with the tight passives I know. Hero outlines this villain is more passive than a typical TAG - so flatting a big pair in the blind would not be a total shock.

JJ in the big blind is not an automatic raise even for me. Even QQ merits a fair share of limps. We are playing deep. The BB can't create a low SPR for the big pair hand. I would shave off one combination of QQ and JJ because of the prior action, but it seems unwise to do any more than that. Top and middle set are firmly in my version of villain's range, but there are more two pair hands than sets in the range. Say 4 possible sets (down from six due to preflop action), 9 QJ hands, 3 Q3, 3 J3 and 5 combo draws. Even if we restrict some of the lesser hands due to the flop pattern, Hero's bottom set seems safely ahead of villains range.

I did grow less comfortable as OP described Hero's table image. Still Hero is gets playable pot odds and I think he has 50%+ equity vs villain's range.

DrStrange
 
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jbutler

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This would be a lot easier a question imo of the flop had checked through and there were more two pair combos available but the fact that he would have to have the case 3 makes it harder to put him on Q3 or J3 obv.
 

bergs

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If he limped JJ or QQ and we're set versus set, I can't get away from it. This happened to me at 5/10 and I blasted off $2500 when I flopped a set of 6s and he flopped a set of queens and we both limped pre (both aggressive players, Him TAG, me LAG).

If that's a leak, so be it, but I think it's an appreciably rare situation. He has KT, or QJ, or AcXc a vast majority of the time here. The min raise smells like a isolation bet disguised as a super strong hand worthy of a min raise.

I still want to get it in here, but I'll accept more variance that most. If you can get away from the hand easily on the turn (and I've seen you make these kind of big folds) then flat and be prepared to ditch your hand on any club, K, 8, etc, and jamming anything else. You've got to be willing to instafold even to a turn check if one of these cards comes, basically.

I just have a hard time playing so passively that we're worried about a set over set in a limped pot. I think I'm going broke 100% of the time when this happens to me. I've folded KK twice pre, but I've never not gotten it in limped set versus set (happened twice as well).
 

bergs

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The conversation I had after the game with another player also centered on whether BB ever has QQ or JJ when he checks pre. I think he checks those hands through in the BB something like 30% of the time. In addition to his passive nature, he knows that any preflop raise under $20 will get called by most limpets and would want to see a flop with no overcards before putting much in the pot. While this guy is a young guy, he plays a fair amount like a standard old man coffee.

My problem is his line just makes so little sense with any holding. If he has QJ+ why isn't he iso-info.

ANSWER: Perceived value

If he has KTcc why isn't he flatting to see the turn?

ANSWER: If he turns a King he's good versus the bigger stack but maybe not against you.

Perhaps he's trying to min-raise with a draw to freeze me so he doesn't have to face a larger raise by me if he flats the spewtard's jam?

ANSWER: Hell yes, that's what I'd do.

I would not expect him to be thinking on that level but it's really the only rationale that makes any sense I think.
 

bergs

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Most interesting strat post in a while IMO. Makes me anxious to play at Mohegan next Thursday night :)
 

Chicken Rob

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The conversation I had after the game with another player also centered on whether BB ever has QQ or JJ when he checks pre. I think he checks those hands through in the BB something like 30% of the time. In addition to his passive nature, he knows that any preflop raise under $20 will get called by most limpets and would want to see a flop with no overcards before putting much in the pot. While this guy is a young guy, he plays a fair amount like a standard old man coffee.

My problem is his line just makes so little sense with any holding. If he has QJ+ why isn't he iso-info. If he has KTcc why isn't he flatting to see the turn? Perhaps he's trying to min-raise with a draw to freeze me so he doesn't have to face a larger raise by me if he flats the spewtard's jam? I would not expect him to be thinking on that level but it's really the only rationale that makes any sense I think.

I think people like getting their money in with KTcc. I know I do. I'm fairly tight. I would rather get the money in with 2 cards to come than one with such a huge draw. I think flatting with this hand gives up too much equity. A bad turn card puts you at ~30% equity. A terrible turn card may have you drawing to 2 outs. A good card might kill your action. Shovel it in with KTcc and accept the variance.

As for the rest of his range, I think he might have you crushed to less than 50% equity. I think JJ and QQ are more likely here than people are saying. Add this to a bunch of big combo draws, and maybe QJ and it looks less good for our hero if he really is that tight. My experience with this type of player is that we are behind his range.

I put him on QQ, JJ, QJ, big combo draw (including AKcc, ATcc, etc.). I'm not gonna do the math here, but it looks risky to me based on pot and stack sizes. Actual math would let me know how close this is, but my gut says it's close.

In the moment, I'm not sure I know what I would do unless I were in the hand in the moment. I think this is a tough spot.
 

grandgnu

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The bottom line is that your hand against his entire RANGE is what matters here. Yes, that range can include a passive player limping with JJ or QQ. But the inclusion of so many other hands in his possible range makes the clear choice (to me) to be ready for a cooler if that's the case and not be afraid of getting your chips in.

Hero started with $600. Hero raised to $35, shorty shoved for $70 and BB iso-raised to $140. I don't expect BB to believe Hero can call this raise, since it's another $105 on top of Hero's original raise. To me BB looks like he is trying to isolate the all-in villain and ensure he doesn't get pushed out of the pot.

Hero cannot reraise without being pot committed given his stack size and the strength of his hand. I'm fine with a shove here, I'm fine with a small reraise to get it in on the turn and I'm fine with a call with plans to call villians turn shove or to shove ourselves on the turn regardless of the card that falls. Bottom line, Hero should be getting it in here.
 

jbutler

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The bottom line is that your hand against his entire RANGE is what matters here. Yes, that range can include a passive player limping with JJ or QQ. But the inclusion of so many other hands in his possible range makes the clear choice (to me) to be ready for a cooler if that's the case and not be afraid of getting your chips in.

thanks, i'm familiar with the concept of a hand RANGE. however, to properly evaluate his RANGE you have to do more than count the hands that make up the RANGE. you have to weight each hand according to player tendencies/table image(s)/game flow/etc to see how your hand does against that WEIGHTED RANGE.
 

atomiktoaster

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How does this sound? BB has top or middle set, has SB pegged for one or two pairs (same as ours, right? ), and his read on hero has settled on "flush draw" for whatever reason. The raise is an attempt to make the odds wrong for hero's "flush". Does that make more sense than any other scenario? Would calling and jamming if the BB checks a turn or river club be suicidally lagtarded?
 

trever

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Against this range: AA-JJ, K10, QJ, Q3, J3, AcXc, 9c10c, Kc9c you have over 70% equity

Against this range: QQ, JJ, KcTc, Tc9c, Q3, J3, AcKc, Ac10c, you have 49% equity

Against this range: QQ, JJ, KcTc, 9c10c, AcKc, AcTc, you have 24% equity
 

Chicken Rob

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Against this range: AA-JJ, K10, QJ, Q3, J3, AcXc, 9c10c, Kc9c you have over 70% equity

Against this range: QQ, JJ, KcTc, Tc9c, Q3, J3, AcKc, Ac10c, you have 49% equity

Against this range: QQ, JJ, KcTc, 9c10c, AcKc, AcTc, you have 24% equity

My read is the last range, and maybe throw in 9c8c. This is how I would weight the range of a tight passive player in this hand. Maybe I find more folds than average, but I smell a pretty strong range here. Am I a retard (for thinking this way, not in general)?
 

DrStrange

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So, how do we expect villain to play QJ? There are nine possible combinations of QJ - six possible sets and five (or so) combo draws. QJ is the most important ranging consideration - leave it out and hero should fold, leave it in and hero plays for stacks.

DrStrange
 

Mental Nomad

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I don't see how to rationalize removing any two-pair holdings from the range, given that he got in as an unraised blind.

Likewise, calling a small bet from early position is not unusual for someone with two pair who is described as "passive."
 

Chicken Rob

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Against this range: AA-JJ, K10, QJ, Q3, J3, AcXc, 9c10c, Kc9c you have over 70% equity

Against this range: QQ, JJ, KcTc, Tc9c, Q3, J3, AcKc, Ac10c, you have 49% equity

Against this range: QQ, JJ, KcTc, 9c10c, AcKc, AcTc, you have 24% equity

My read is the last range, and maybe throw in 9c8c. This is how I would weight the range of a tight passive player in this hand. Maybe I find more folds than average, but I smell a pretty strong range here. Am I a retard (for thinking this way, not in general)?

I don't see how one can throw out QJ in villain's range.

Oops, plus QJ. If you look at my response in post #21 you'll see I meant to include that. But still, not a great situation for deep stacks here with our bottom set.
 
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