Line check: .10/.20 NLHE with AA (Mavens) (3 Viewers)

[Chippy McChiperson]

Well he doesnt have ax of spades obviously, so what hands that he could possibly have that he would play this way?

 

[Eriks]

Well he doesnt have ax of spades obviously, so what hands that he could possibly have that he would play this way?

We don’t know river action yet so we are getting a little ahead ourselves.

 

[JustinInMN]

Or you could induce a bluff from kq or two spades. Not sure why everyone is autofolding to a jam here.

I am making the crying call for sure. Especially given the read on villian.

Ax of spades. Checks out with the limp/call pre too.

Hero holds

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

We don’t know river action yet so we are getting a little ahead ourselves.

True, but it's good to think what could be have to check raise me here that makes sense before you go ahead and value bet.

 

[Eriks]

I am making the crying call for sure. Especially given the read on villian.


Hero holds

Yeah, I know. It was the scenario were if we had AA without the A of spades were I’d be more inclined to bet/call since he then cluld have a bunch of Ax of spades that might play this way

 

[Eriks]

True, but it's good to think what could be have to check raise me here that makes sense before you go ahead and value bet.

I suppose 44, 98, as well as KQ and spades of course. I just find it more likely a river check/raise would be a value hand than a missed draw after we have shown strength on every street.

 

[JustinInMN]

We don’t know river action yet so we are getting a little ahead ourselves.

I do think how we are going to respond to river really informs the betting the decision. I do agree if unwilling to make the crying call, checking is better than betting planning to fold.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I suppose 44, 98, as well as KQ and spades of course. I just find it more likely a river check/raise would be a value hand than a missed draw after we have shown strength on every street.

i feel 44 or 98 would probably check raise the turn, or at least lead the river, since most top pair hands are probably checking back the river.

 

[Eriks]

I do think how we are going to respond to river really informs the betting the decision. I do agree if unwilling to make the crying call, checking is better than betting planning to fold.

Maybe but it’s just that there are a lot of Jx combos that could call a value bet. I would feel rather confident in betting for value targeting those but also quite content with letting it go vs a river check/raise.

 

[boltonguy]

i feel 44 or 98 would probably check raise the turn, or at least lead the river, since most top pair hands are probably checking back the river.

I think the nuts makes more money letting us value own ourselves given the strength we have shown here
He has to check river for us ... V leading river is way too strong

 

[Eriks]

i feel 44 or 98 would probably check raise the turn, or at least lead the river, since most top pair hands are probably checking back the river.

I agree they should but villains’ at micro stakes tend not to do what they should. I would have a hard time giving him credit for a river check/raise bluff even though there are somewhat few value hands that make sense. It just feels like a river raise means they usually got it.

 

[Eriks]

@Schmendr1ck I hope you really got check/raised because this was a really interesting discussion

 

[JustinInMN]

Maybe but it’s just that there are a lot of Jx combos that could call a value bet. I would feel rather confident in betting for value targeting those but also quite content with letting it go vs a river check/raise.

Hero also probably has some misses in his range that would force him to bluff catch with jx. Hero can have AK, AQ, KQ that missed. This might be an argument for going for a bigger sizing than I initially suggested.

 

[JustinInMN]

@Schmendr1ck I hope you really got check/raised because this was a really interesting discussion

Spoiler: Thread prediction

I am starting to feel like this thread is heading for hero checked behind and now feels like a wuss. I have posted that sort of thread in this forum as well.

 

[boltonguy]

I wouldnt fault a check behind here. V has shown strength and the board is paired and connected. Check is good.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Love the discussion but going to give it more time before I post river action.

 

[redeagle]

good discussion. I could see myself going either way. Depends on what I know of V. I lean towards making the bet.

 

[DarPodo]

check / call

Maybe too fancy, but I think villain has more missed draws than J’s. Try to induce the missed draws to bluff at the pot.

 

[CraigT78]

River ($22.30) (lol @CraigT78

Told you. Online is rigged.

Sucko got there again.

 

[Eriks]

check / call

Maybe too fancy, but I think villain has more missed draws than J’s. Try to induce the missed draws to bluff at the pot.

We’re in position

 

[arch3r]

V is only calling/raising with better and folding with worse. Check it down.

 

[DarPodo]

We’re in position

Oops

Then bet some fun amount like 9.99 on the river. Maybe a jack can call you. Fold to a raise.

 

[Beakertwang]

Told you. Online is rigged.

Sucko got there again.

Oh, it’s Sicko? He obviously has 9s7h, and put in money on the flop because he had a gutter and backdoor spades. Surprised he didn’t check/raise the turn.

 

[AR_poker]

With how many overpairs we have (both with our range and this line), it could be an interesting spot for villain to bluff shove JT over a thin value bet since it blocks jacks full and tens full. But that hand seems likelier to sigh-call and hope we have AJ, and nothing about the player description makes me think they'd ever think to turn that hand into a bluff—especially any of the combos without a spade.

OP, do you think this villain is ever check-shoving as a bluff on this runout? Or are hands like Ks9s and Qs9s just hitting the muck?

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Oh, it’s Sicko? He obviously has 9s7h, and put in money on the flop because he had a gutter and backdoor spades. Surprised he didn’t check/raise the turn.

UTG is not sicko.

 

[boltonguy]

Thank god. That guy has Mavens "god mode" codes ...

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Thank god. That guy has Mavens "god mode" codes ...

Yeah, he's either the best or the luckiest player on that site. I won't even sit at the table with him anymore, I've lost hundreds to the guy.

 

[Beakertwang]

Yeah, he's either the best or the luckiest player on that site. I won't even sit at the table with him anymore, I've lost hundreds to the guy.

I swear he can see my cards.

 

[natumes]

I think betting on the larger side is the way to go, 80-100% pot. Jx probably isn't calling anything smaller that smells like value, J10 hates the river as any over pocket pair now beats him, which hero easily has given the action, and could induce jams putting the decision on hero.

Larger bet polarizes hero to full house, over pocket pair, or missed flush putting the tough decision on villain. V probably only jams with JJ. I don't think action represents hero with a straight here, and I think it's unlikely villain has it either. Villain could have 44, which I think would just call a larger bet, but more likely has Jx.

 

[boltonguy]

My concern about a larger bet here is that the bigger the bet, the more likely were only called by hands that beat us.