Ugly Tournament Spot Deep With KK (1 Viewer)

JoseRijo

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I think I played this OK until the turn, and then the wheels came off. We are 7-handed early in a $50 rebuy at @iBetOnEverything 's house. His friends don't like to fold and play aggressively (if not recklessly). Villain is definitely one of the better players.

Blinds are 75/150 and hero and villain both have slightly more than the 20,000 starting stacks.

Hero raises UTG to 400 with Kh Kd
Button 3-bets to 1200
Hero 4-bets to 3000, Button calls fairly quickly

Flop: 9s 4c 3c
Hero bets 4000, Villain calls

Turn: Ah
Hero dies a little more inside and ?

At this point the pot about 14,000 and I have 14,000 left in my stack. The villain covers me but not my much.
 
The most range-narrowing Villain action was 3-betting preflop. Your reraise was so small that it doesn't tell us much; it was only 1,800 to call with 4,200 plus blinds plus implied odds. He's probably calling with anything reasonable he'd 3-bet. What's your take on his 3-betting range?
 
I think I played this OK until the turn, and then the wheels came off. We are 7-handed early in a $50 rebuy at @iBetOnEverything 's house. His friends don't like to fold and play aggressively (if not recklessly). Villain is definitely one of the better players.

Blinds are 75/150 and hero and villain both have slightly more than the 20,000 starting stacks.

Hero raises UTG to 400 with Kh Kd
Button 3-bets to 1200
Hero 4-bets to 3000, Button calls fairly quickly

Flop: 9s 4c 3c
Hero bets 4000, Villain calls

Turn: Ah
Hero dies a little more inside and ?

At this point the pot about 14,000 and I have 14,000 left in my stack. The villain covers me but not my much.

Really important question. Is there a cash game available if you bust? :)
 
If he has AA he's not flatting any raise pre flop.

Would he take that line with AQ? AJ? You have two blockers to AK. So that's less likely.

From what little I can gleem from the OP, I'd range him on QQ or JJ, def not AA, and a weak ace isn't likely.

He's got a pocket pair imho, or possible the unlikely AK? But I could be wrong.
 
Tournament style bet sizing makes Hero's reading abilities crucial.

The preflop action tends to restrict villain to big aces and big pairs and Hero's range is even tighter given the UTG raise/3-bet.

The flop bet and call should help clean out villain's Ax hands, but only Hero can really answer that. Is this villain the type of player that would flat Hero's flop c-bet with ace high at the cost of a quarter of his stack?

Hero is in a sad RIO situation. Villain is going to fold QQ/JJ if Hero bets and likely stack off with AK/AQ. If Hero checks, he is asking to get bluffed unless Hero holds a tricky/trappy table image. So it looks to me like Hero either gives up with a check/fold line or risks it all by betting knowing that villain is getting a sweet RIO deal.

Knowing nothing - I bet 8,000 and pray for a river king if needed.
 
The most range-narrowing Villain action was 3-betting preflop. Your reraise was so small that it doesn't tell us much; it was only 1,800 to call with 4,200 plus blinds plus implied odds. He's probably calling with anything reasonable he'd 3-bet. What's your take on his 3-betting range?
Well, I don't know him hardly at all, but he definitely looks like he likes the gambol. I don't think you can say his 3-betting range is "the 10% of hands." I think it is more like "the top 30% of hands but he only 3-bets 30% of the time." And it might be even wider than that!

I see that 4-bet was smallish, but keeping everything he 3-bet with seems like a terrific outcome. I'm not folding out better by 4-betting, so why not have worse hands call?
 
If he has AA he's not flatting any raise pre flop.

Would he take that line with AQ? AJ? You have two blockers to AK. So that's less likely.

From what little I can gleem from the OP, I'd range him on QQ or JJ, def not AA, and a weak ace isn't likely.

He's got a pocket pair imho, or possible the unlikely AK? But I could be wrong.

This. As played, I shove this turn.
 
Not sure how many people are in this tournament, but any non charity event that is labeled a Rebuy tournament, Im going to expect some pretty loose play. Couple that with your impression of the villain and Id widen his range a bit (plus he's probably reading you as tight)

Doubtful he has AA, but he could have the Ac which could be trouble. Shove and rebuy if needed.
 
Well, I don't know him hardly at all, but he definitely looks like he likes the gambol. I don't think you can say his 3-betting range is "the 10% of hands." I think it is more like "the top 30% of hands but he only 3-bets 30% of the time." And it might be even wider than that!

Going into the turn, he's going to be holding basically his whole 3-bet range except AA, narrowed down only by hands he would flat a 2/3 PSB on that flop. The fact that he flatted that bet makes a bare ace-high hand seem unlikely, unless you've seen him float with 2 bare overs before. So we're mostly looking at pocket pairs, which could include a slowplayed set. (The board's wet, but not in a way that is likely to help an overpair, so a slowplay would be reasonable.)

There are 3 ways he could have 99 and 6 ways each he could have TT, JJ, or QQ (18 total), plus 6 total ways he could have AK and 12 ways he could have AQ. (He could have KK one way too, but I'm going to ignore it.) Out of those AK and AQ hands, the 2 suited clubs hands make good sense for the flop call, while the rest are iffy. Whether he would 3-bet with AQ at all makes a huge difference, clearly.

Shoving will not fold out any hands that beat us and has a weak chance at getting action from hands we beat. Checking is definitely the best move. If he shoves, we're getting laid 2:1 and should proceed based on our assessment of how many of his losing hands he would bluff in that spot, versus the 3 ways for 99 and however many different A-high hands we think he could have.

A couple key things working in our favor are that (a) he's a good player and (b) he probably reads us as a nit. Villain should see the size of the pot and know that it's a critical SPR situation. He should also read us for an overpair whose hopes were just dashed by that ace, and that we are likely to nittily fold in that spot. It's totally reasonable for a good player to make a strong move here when checked to. So if we plan to see a showdown with this, value-check is the best play.

Check-fold wouldn't be unreasonable if you think he's never bluffing here or you just don't want to gamble like this.

I see that 4-bet was smallish, but keeping everything he 3-bet with seems like a terrific outcome. I'm not folding out better by 4-betting, so why not have worse hands call?

I'm not sure exactly how I feel about the smallish reraise. You're a successful tournament player, so if you find that works for you, great. Personally, I would rather take down his 1,200 than get an extra 1,800 but have to worry about being in unpredictable stack-threatening pots with an obvious overpair versus a wider range, especially against a skilled player.
 
4-bet sizing pre was completely standard - no issue there. Any bigger and you'll be folding out worse hands a lot more than you want to.

With the bet/call on the flop, I'm giving villain mostly smaller overpairs (TT-QQ) or a random suited-connector type hand that found a pair. Most of his aces SHOULD be gone by now but you never know. Ugly spot on the turn. Definitely checking - betting is completely RIO and is a mistake. It's REALLY close between check-call and check-fold - I expect a check-behind a majority of the time, in which case we're almost certainly good. It's pretty unlikely he has us beat but also pretty unlikely he would turn a worse hand into a bluff here (even being a possibly-LAGGY player - against your standard ABC guy this is a check-fold for sure but here it's close.) Eh, given how early it is I'm still probably not going to call off a 90bb stack, but an in-game read could change my mind.
 
I expect a check-behind a majority of the time, in which case we're almost certainly good.

Oh yeah, I meant to address this. If he checks behind, I think a smallish value/blocker bet on the river would be good, like 4K or 5K. He'll probably fold very often, but he may occasionally pay off if he thinks we're being cute. Plus, it'll prevent him from shoving on a bare bluff. If he does shove over our river bet, we can fold and survive with about a half-stack.
 
Thanks, guys. I felt like he could have any AK, especially those with clubs. Axcc isn't out of the question where x could be anything 5 or above. I guess I would check AA here or maybe AK, but at the time I felt like it would look like exactly KK.
 
I think you can 4bet larger and still get exactly the same amount of hands to call. There is nothing wrong with 4betting to this size unless you think villain uses 10x multiplier to call small pocket pairs. When stack sizes are so deep I always make my bets larger. You will cbet more often in 4bet pots and you are maximizing your edge vs weaker opponents early on in the tournament.

As mentioned there is no reason to bet turn, i would plan on going into check call mode for turn and evaluate river
 
If he has AA he's not flatting any raise pre flop.

I disagree here. There would be nothing wrong IMO for villian to flat AA in position while disguising his hand. Think about it, unless he is a complete aggro lag a 5bet from anyone is pretty much AA or KK, considering we have KK more likely AA. Just my 2¢
 
I disagree here. There would be nothing wrong IMO for villian to flat AA in position while disguising his hand. Think about it, unless he is a complete aggro lag a 5bet from anyone is pretty much AA or KK, considering we have KK more likely AA. Just my 2¢

I think its completely reasonable as well, although most of the time I would agree that they would shove AA pre. Even a 4b is not likely to be anything other than QQ+ and no one is folding KK pre.

The A on the turn makes AA less likely. I would always keep AA in villains range though
 
Results:

In game I couldn't stand the thought of being bluffed, so I bet 7000. He insta-shoved and I insta-folded. He turns over 52cc.

It literally took me a half-hour before I realized the ace made him a straight and not just a straight-flush draw. I'm sure he was salivating thinking I had AA.
 
The most range-narrowing Villain action was 3-betting preflop. Your reraise was so small that it doesn't tell us much; it was only 1,800 to call with 4,200 plus blinds plus implied odds. He's probably calling with anything reasonable he'd 3-bet.

This. Reraise should have been something like 4,500-5,300 to get him to lay down.
 
First time at reverse analysis, so don't flame me too hard, buy I think this might be an interesting hand to look at from the villain's perspective -- is there anything that Hero could have done to get us off this hand?

As mentioned in the OP, Villain's image (Hero's experience) is that of a better player. What image does Hero have in this game? Does Hero have an image that would encourage a bluff from the button?

Pot-sized (standard?) raise from Hero UTG drove out other players, so Villain attempts a steal with a 3-bet. When Hero 4-bets, how often has this defined his range to AA-QQ and AK?

I think the other posters were right when they questioned the size of the 4-bet. Villain has already attempted to represent strength so, for a little bit more, might as well see a flop and hope he hits. (Villain still had 18000+ after calling.) Villain has position and can fold to any c-bet by Hero, or check/bet if Hero checks.

Once the flop comes, is there any bet from the Hero that gets us to lay down this draw? With Hero's image, does Villain see this as anything other than Hero's overpair vs his draw?
 
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^^^ this. Hero wants 52s to continue and face hard choices after the flop.

Villain hit a super lucky flop and even so, is just barely ahead of hero. Most of the time, villain whiff/folds playing 25s or ends up with less than 30% equity, drawing in a low SPR environment.

Villain also bungles the flop. He needs to check-raise all in because his equity is fleeting - it is totally dependent on drawing equity. What was the villain planning to do on the turn if he misses his 15 out draw? Check fold vs Hero's shove?

I suggest hero reconsider his evaluation of villain's skill level. Villain looks unimpressive in this hand history. (noting that this is only one hand, so we shouldn't draw any hard conclusions.)

DrStrange
 
Results:

In game I couldn't stand the thought of being bluffed, so I bet 7000. He insta-shoved and I insta-folded. He turns over 52cc.

It literally took me a half-hour before I realized the ace made him a straight and not just a straight-flush draw. I'm sure he was salivating thinking I had AA.
I guess he was sure that you were pot committed after you bet the turn, but his raise makes no sense.
 
Villain rolled a 20BB preflop bet with 5c2c? Wow, now thats gambling..... He got lucky, but your got luckier getting out of the way in time.
 
Results:

In game I couldn't stand the thought of being bluffed, so I bet 7000. He insta-shoved and I insta-folded. He turns over 52cc.

It literally took me a half-hour before I realized the ace made him a straight and not just a straight-flush draw. I'm sure he was salivating thinking I had AA.

Although my presence would have changed the hands, I'm now sad I missed Clays game! You must have been a little shell shocked. LOL Villain.
 
José you were the 2nd best player there by far (me first number one baby! ). I can't picture who button was based on your position, black hat black hood guy?

I had 99 in the hand you told me I wouldn't remember.... I think :p
 
^^^ this. Hero wants 52s to continue and face hard choices after the flop.

Villain hit a super lucky flop and even so, is just barely ahead of hero. Most of the time, villain whiff/folds playing 25s or ends up with less than 30% equity, drawing in a low SPR environment.

Villain also bungles the flop. He needs to check-raise all in because his equity is fleeting - it is totally dependent on drawing equity. What was the villain planning to do on the turn if he misses his 15 out draw? Check fold vs Hero's shove?

I suggest hero reconsider his evaluation of villain's skill level. Villain looks unimpressive in this hand history. (noting that this is only one hand, so we shouldn't draw any hard conclusions.)

DrStrange

But the Villain isn't playing 52s... he's "playing" / representing the strong pairs or AK everyone (including you and Ben) have put him on.

If the flop misses him, he's got an easy choice -- make one last chance at his bluff if Hero checks, check for the free card, or fold if Hero c-bets since he's likely putting Hero on AA or KK because of the pre-flop 4-bet.

If Hero calls his flop bluff, and Villain misses his 15-outs, why wouldn't he fold to any Hero bet? It's an easy decision, because he's the only one who knows he doesn't have the high pair. If Hero bets out, Villain will probably "think" about it for a while, then "reluctantly" fold ("You got me -- your AA is better than my QQ."); or, if he's in a gambling mood, he might try one more time for the 15-outer.
 
Villain's monster draw is a 56% vs 44% favorite on the flop as the cards lay. Plus villain must have some fold equity if he jams all, if for no other reason that Hero might be c-betting with AK rather than a pair. Villain is surrendering equity by letting the hand get to the turn.

Villain's tricky play absolutely has Hero "fooled" but the problem is the fancy play created an SPR so low that most of us felt Hero was pot committed. And even having Hero fooled, villain didn't do anything to exploit the confusion. Villain paid 15% of his stack preflop to create the diversion and then did nothing when given an almost sure thing +EV edge.

<shrug> maybe people feel good about "playing any two cards" and creating chaos & confusion at the table. But for me, the test is how much value did villain gain relative to the risks he took. I
 
Nice fold. I raise more pre and go broke.
 

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